Interest Rate Uncertainty

  Just a note concerning the recent unsettled market in the interest rate area. Last week was not a happy week for rates. The market has been a little unsettled and wanting rates to rise for two weeks. On Friday, after bouncing around for the week, rates made a major jump up. This was based upon the strong employment numbers.

               Rates are still very good but we had been adjusting off of the ultimate bottom of the long term market. In the short term the market tends to follow ups and downs over a two week period. When we see this type of rise it will take the market some time to settle and recover a portion of the loss. Our goal is to attempt a lock in when the market responds to the other end of the trading range.

               Without getting lost in the technical issues, there are a couple points to make. Comparing rates in an unsettled market is very challenging because of these variations. No rate is meaningful until it is locked in and guaranteed. By being a little patient and following the trend you can often do better than by trying to bet one institution against another.

               Here are two things to look for. When the stock market has a large loss the money usually runs into the bond market and rates improve. There are still plenty of economic problems here and especially in Europe. This bad news will generally feed to lower rates.